* Reference: Chapter 8 of * Ernst R. Berndt, The Practice of Econometrics, Addison-Wesley, 1991. SAMPLE 1 49 READ (CIGAD) YEAR SALES SALESPC INCPC RPRICE CIGTOB TOBPC PRTOB DF & ASTOCK / SKIPLINES=1 READ (CIGAD) TIME ADV TOBADV REALAD TPERCIG ASTOCK1 ASTOCK2 F L & LNI / SKIPLINES=1 NOREWIND * Data check IF (YEAR.NE.(TIME+1900)) STOP * Exercise 7, p. 432. * (a) GENR LNC=LOG(SALESPC) GENR LNY=LOG(INCPC) GENR LNP=LOG(RPRICE) GENR LNA=LOG(ASTOCK) GENR D53=(YEAR.GE.1953) GENR D64=(YEAR.GE.1964) * Allocate a variable for forecasts. DIM LYHAT 49 * Equation (8.60) SAMPLE 1 41 OLS LNC LNY LNP LNA DF D53 D64 / LOGLOG DWPVALUE * Forecasting FC / BEG=42 END=49 PREDICT=LYHAT SAMPLE 49 49 GENR YHAT=EXP(LYHAT) GENR RATIO=100*(YHAT-SALESPC)/SALESPC PRINT SALESPC YHAT RATIO * (b) SAMPLE 1 49 GENR D71=(YEAR.GE.1971) OLS LNC LNY LNP LNA DF D53 D64 D71 / LOGLOG DWPVALUE * Chow test for parameter stability. * Create slope dummy variables. GENR DLNY=D71*LNY GENR DLNP=D71*LNP GENR DLNA=D71*LNA OLS LNC LNY LNP LNA DF D53 D64 D71 DLNY DLNP DLNA * Calculate an F-test statistic TEST TEST DLNY=0 TEST DLNP=0 TEST DLNA=0 END TEST TEST DLNY=0 TEST DLNP=0 TEST DLNA=0 TEST D71=0 END * (c) Estimate Equation (8.61) GENR LCIGTOB=LOG(CIGTOB/100) NL 1 / NCOEF=2 PREDICT=LNI0 EQ LCIGTOB = A + LOG(1 + 2*(YC/INCPC)) - 2*YC/INCPC END * With the NL command the standard errors are calculated by * numerical methods. * (d) Compare the fitted values LNI0 with the fitted values LNI * provided in the CIGAD data file. PRINT LNI0 LNI GENR LNY2=LNY*LNY STAT LNI0 LNY LNY2 / PCOR OLS LNC LNY LNY2 LNP LNA DF D53 D64 D71 / DWPVALUE STOP